Study by The Good Food Institute reveals global requirements to achieve 2030 targets relating to harvest, infrastructure and investment for the industry.
In 2020, sales of plant-based alternatives grew twice as fast as overall food sales in the US. In 2019, the plant-based food market was worth US$5 billion. Today, it's worth over US$7 billion. The plant-based milk category remains the most developed in the sector, representing 35% of the plant-based food market and 15% of the overall milk market. But when it comes to plant-based meats, the increase in sales in this category surpasses all others: while demand for plant-based milks grew 27% in the last two years, for example, sales of plant-based meats increased 72% in the same period.
The boom in demand for these alternatives is influencing and reshaping the entire food industry. Given the expected increases in global demand for protein and changes in consumer habits over the coming decades, the plant-based protein industry will need major investment – across the board – to ensure that supply chains and manufacturing capacity are up to date.
With this in mind, The Good Food Institute has released the report “Plant-based Meat: Anticipating 2030 Production Requirements” . Based on data collection and analysis of current ingredient use, the study forecasts global production volume requirements to meet 2030 targets related to harvesting, infrastructure, and industry investment. With globally comprehensive estimates, the study provides guidance for investors, ingredient processors, equipment suppliers, and plant-based meat manufacturers regarding the urgencies, opportunities, obstacles, and investment levels needed to meet the projected demand for 2030.
In terms of global ingredient volumes, the report estimates that the industry will need to produce at least 25 million metric tons (MMT) of plant-based meat to meet annual market demand. The study also examines other factors, such as the industry’s future manufacturing footprint. Based on hypothetical production facilities used to produce structured plant proteins (SPP), the base material for plant-based meat, it estimates that at least 810 plants will need to come online by 2030 to meet demand, which is expected to cost approximately $27 billion in global capital expenditure (CapEx) and at least $17 billion in operating costs per year.
The research identified potential bottlenecks in the global supply of key ingredients (such as coconut oil and pea protein) in the coming years. However, it showed that manufacturing capacity, rather than the availability of sufficient volumes of ingredients, is likely to be the limiting link in the global plant-based meat supply chain.
GFI's analysis indicates that modernizing existing food processing facilities, forming partnerships, close collaboration between industry stakeholders and, most importantly, early investment in infrastructure are the measures needed to avoid a shortage scenario and be able to expand production input more efficiently in the next decade.
Brazilian Scenario
Although the forecast is for a global scope, it is also confirmed at a regional level. Cristiana Ambiel, Science and Technology Manager at GFI Brazil, sees this issue as also a bottleneck in the country. “We need to develop companies interested in processing ingredients (concentrated, textured and isolated protein) in order to meet future demand,” she says.
Furthermore, the research "Opportunities and Challenges in the Production of Plant-Based Products Analogous to Animal Products," launched by The Good Food Institute Brazil at the end of 2021, has many points of contact with the report "Anticipating 2030 Production Requirements." With the aim of accelerating innovation in the alternative protein industry, GFI Brazil consulted professionals from the ingredient and plant-based product processing industries in the country, identified the biggest challenges in developing plant-based alternatives (with the quality, price, and characteristics sought by consumers), and defined seven priority research areas for the advancement of this market in Brazil.
The development of domestic raw materials and ingredients was identified as the main demand by 84% of the companies that participated in the survey. Due to the limited supply of domestic options on the market, where soy still predominates, the demand for imported ingredients is high. This dependence on imports (vulnerable to the volatility of foreign currency exchange rates and the waiting time for delivery, for example) increases production costs and, consequently, the final price of the product, which ends up becoming inaccessible to many Brazilians.
This reality seems incompatible with Brazil, home to 20% of all biodiversity on the planet. The country has, in fact, numerous native species that can add unique sensory and nutritional characteristics to a product, in addition to being a major producer of plant-based raw materials (such as beans, rice, oats, sesame, wheat, rye, corn, barley, sorghum and peanuts) with the potential to become a source of protein for the plant-based industry.
The missing link to begin transforming this potential into reality is scientific research: time and investment are needed to define the most suitable extraction processes for each protein, characterize and improve their protein functionalities, enhance sensory characteristics, and reduce final costs. GFI Brazil works to fill this gap with the Biomes Program , aimed at universities, research institutions, and private companies that fund research with the potential to transform native products from the Amazon and Cerrado into food ingredients demanded by the alternative protein industry, adding value to Brazilian species, generating income opportunities for local communities, and promoting the preservation of biodiversity.
The report “Anticipating 2030 Production Requirements” confirms that research into alternative ingredients is an important – and especially interesting – front for Brazil. This is because, although manufacturing and processing capacity was identified by the analysis as the main barrier to be faced by the industry, pressure on the global supply of key ingredients may also become an obstacle in the coming years.
For example, the plant-based meat industry is expected to demand at least 16% of the global supply of coconut oil by 2030. Thanks to its high saturated fat content and functional properties, it has become an essential component in many plant-based products. But with over 70% of production concentrated in Indonesia and the Philippines, coconut oil has also become a volatile commodity and heavily dependent on exports. Therefore, in addition to developing alternative production methods, the industry must urgently work on diversifying ingredients and creating new manufacturing methods to produce similar plant-based fats. The same scenario applies to other key products, such as soy and pea protein, as the plant-based meat industry will demand, respectively, 3 times and 10 times the projected global supply of these products by 2030.
Far beyond the food industry
The GFI report is a first macro-scale analysis of a model that is expected to be updated frequently and will increase in complexity, robustness and accuracy as new data becomes available. While the analysis suggests that the plant-based industry should not underestimate the challenges of expanding the plant-based meat supply chain to a scale that rivals that of conventional meat, it does provide reassurance that there is ample precedent to support this level of expanded infrastructure investment: the renewable energy sector.
Global investments in clean energy capacity grew from US$40 billion in 2004 to US$282 billion in 2019, and, like plant-based proteins, clean energy is a more economical and sustainable alternative for a latent large-scale industry with high initial R&D and CapEx costs, but low infrastructure financing costs. And, when it comes to plant-based meat, the production chains and processes offer several advantages in structural efficiency and flexibility over conventional meat that can improve the sector's resilience, ensuring a long-term competitive advantage and, of course, profound benefits for the environment, public health, and food security.
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18/12/25
